Q+A: Who are Thailand's "red shirts?"

By Martin Petty

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thai anti-government "red shirt" protesters moved in on Bangkok on Friday ahead of a mass rally to force fresh elections.

The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), which backs former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, believes it can bring 1 million people to Bangkok and topple a government it says is a front for a military dictatorship.

WHO ARE THE "RED SHIRTS?"

The UDD is largely backed by the rural poor, loyal to Thaksin because of his populist policies while in office from 2001-2006. Many "red shirts" are among the millions who helped the billionaire win two election landslides.

The UDD still backs Thaksin, despite a graft conviction and confiscation of $1.4 billion of his assets deemed by the Supreme Court as ill-gotten gains from abuse of power. Many "red shirts" believe the graft cases and the coup that toppled him in 2006 are politically motivated to keep him sidelined.

Not all "red shirts" back Thaksin unreservedly, but all are angered by the manner of his removal and believe democracy is being systematically undermined by powerful, unelected figures.

WHAT ARE THEY RALLYING AGAINST?

The "red shirts" say their campaign is a fight for democracy and a battle against Thailand's elite -- including royal advisers, influential businessmen, military generals and the judiciary -- who they say have abused their power and conspired to overthrow elected governments by various means.

The UDD says the government is illegitimate because it was not elected but pieced together by the army in a "silent coup" in December 2008 after a ruling pro-Thaksin party was dissolved.

It wants new elections, which it is confident the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai party would win. It is widely believed Thaksin, who lives in exile, is de facto leader of the UDD and Puea Thai.

WHAT DO MARKETS THINK?

Foreigners bullish on Thai stocks believe the government will survive, that prices already carry a substantial risk discount and that the economy is recovering well from the global downturn. Thai stocks have gained around 4 percent over the past one month but were down a touch by midday on Friday.

But any prolonged unrest springing from this weekend's protest could reverse that sentiment. It could also force the Bank of Thailand to delay an expected interest rate hike because of the need to protect growth.

Five-year bond yields fell by a modest 1 basis point to 3.51 percent on Friday in the belief that the BOT's main interest rate could stay at a record low of 1.25 percent until June or later.

In the medium-term, the divisions that polarize Thailand remain far from a resolution, and with elections due by next year and the king still being treated in hospital, risks may be higher than some bullish investors realize.

IS VIOLENCE LIKELY AT THE "MILLION MAN MARCH"

Most analysts and some security agencies believe the protest will pass without political violence, but do not rule out the possibility of a so-called "third hand" seeking to stir-up trouble to either discredit the reds or the government.

While the UDD has accepted it will be difficult to oust the government without violence, it knows it would be greatly discredited if it instigated violence, to the point that it could lose support and eventually crumble. This has raised fears that UDD opponents might try to capitalize on that.

HOW FAR ARE THEY WILLING TO GO?

In 2009, the "red shirts" blockaded the prime minister's office and shut down key intersections in Bangkok. They also forced the cancellation of an international summit 150 km (95 miles) away.

Hundreds of "red shirts" then battled for 14 hours with troops in Bangkok, Thailand's worst violence in 17 years. The UDD says thugs hired by the government caused the riots. Numerous rallies, large and small, have taken place since then, all peaceful and typically drawing about 10,000 to 20,000 people.

HOW ORGANISED ARE THEY?

The red movement has staged numerous rallies in the past two months targeting institutions and organizations they accuse of using double standards to favor elites. It has managed to evict one of the king's most senior advisers from a country mansion built on national park land he was illegally occupying.

The UDD operates dozens of community radio stations, websites, a TV channel and merchandise shops, and claims to have scores of organizations running "UDD politics schools."

Some pro-Thaksin military figures have claimed they have set up a "people's army" of militias, but the UDD has been quick to deny any paramilitary movement within its ranks.

HOW ARE THE RED SHIRTS RECEIVED?

Many Bangkok residents are tired of the UDD and accuse them of seeking to divide the country and instigate violence to oust the government and allow Thaksin to regain political power, directly or indirectly. The "reds" say this attitude stems from alarmist government propaganda and a biased state media.

Businesses complain the UDD is damaging the country's reputation, scaring off investors and tourists, distracting the government and stifling economic recovery.

Many dismiss reds as gullible "yokels" paid to attend rallies. Others say they have a communist, republican agenda. The UDD denies this, and says it supports a constitutional monarchy.

(Editing by Jason Szep)