Dollar soft ahead of retail sales test, yen slips

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was subdued on Friday ahead of key retail sales for February which could show consumer spending taking a hit and hurting overall prospects of a durable economic recovery.

The dollar index (.DXY: Quote, Profile, Research) was down at 80.26 with immediate support at 80.239, and more around 79.80 -- its March 3 low. Retail sales are due later in the session and a Reuters survey forecasts a 0.2 percent decline in sales, compared with a 0.5 percent increase in January.

"U.S. retail sales are expected to be soft, probably the weakest since September 2009," Westpac said in a note. It added snowstorms blanketed parts of the U.S. last month, leaving markets to only guess how strong consumer spending would be.

"About all we can safely predict is that a 1 percent rise in retail sales would encourage more 'risk on' trades. Naturally, we are not expecting such a number."

In early Asian trade, the euro was a tad up at $1.3685 from $1.3677 late in New York on Thursday, when it rose a little over 0.1 percent.

The euro briefly came under pressure on Thursday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the first priority for Greece was to win back the confidence of financial markets and the debt-stricken country's first steps were a positive start.

The single currency has lost over 4 percent this year as worries about sovereign default by Greece took centrestage and concerns intensified that other peripheral economies like Portugal and Spain were also join.

The euro edged up against the yen, inching up to 124.05 yen from 123.85 late on Thursday. The yen broadly lost ground in early Asian trade, falling to 90.70 yen from 90.55 yen late in New York on Thursday.

The yen could draw support from robust repatriation inflows in the run-up to the fiscal year-end on March 31.

However, analysts note that Japanese funds may have hedged much of their foreign currency exposure, given it was very cheap to do so with Japanese and U.S. rates so low.

If so, the repatriation inflow would have limited implications for currencies.

Speculation that the Bank of Japan may take additional steps to ease monetary policy could weigh on the yen.

The BOJ meets next week and sources say the board is considering expanding special money market operations and analysts say the policy moves may be guided by a desire to weaken the yen.

The euro was steady at 1.4616 Swiss francs early in Asian trade, having hit a session high of 1.4630 on Thursday. The dollar was marginally weaker at 1.0681 francs.

The Swiss franc had fallen on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) said it would act "decisively" to counter any excessive rise in the Swiss currency. The SNB has in the past intervened during the Asian trading time to drive down the franc.

The Swiss central bank's announcement came as it left interest rates on hold and said signs of an economic recovery were becoming more tangible.

Sterling edged up $1.5075, from $1.5056 late on Thursday, after a slight uptick in inflation expectations and a bout of short covering. Still, analysts expect economic and political concerns to keep the pound under pressure ahead of an upcoming general election.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar slipped below $0.7000 after core retail sales for January came in lower than expected, backing the central bank's view that rates were unlikely to be raised in a hurry.

(Reporting by Anirban Nag; Editing by Wayne Cole)